ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA

GRUPPO NAZIONALE PER LA VULCANOLOGIA

PROGETTO ESECUTIVO III ANNO

Progetto esecutivo III anno versione pdf

INDICE

INTRODUZIONE

OBIETTIVI PREVISTI ALLA FINE DEL TERZO ANNO

LINEA 1: SVILUPPO DI METODOLOGIE DI SORVEGLIANZA

LINEA 2: SCENARI ERUTTIVI E VALUTAZIONE DELLA PERICOLOSITA´

LINEA 3: DEFINIZIONE DEL RISCHIO, LIVELLI DI ALLERTA E GESTIONE DEL TERRITORIO

LINEA 4: SVILUPPO E APPLICAZIONE DI METODI DI TELERILEVAMENTO

LINEA 5: METODI INNOVATIVI ED INTEGRATI PER LO STUDIO DELLA STRUTTURA DEI VULCANI

LINEA 6: INDAGINI SULLE PARTI SOMMERSE DEI VULCANI ATTIVI ITALIANI

LINEA 7: CAMPI FLEGREI

FINANZIAMENTI RELATIVI AL III ANNO

TABELLA RIASSUNTIVA DEI COSTI PREVISTI PER IL 2003 PER LA GESTIONE DEL GNV E LE ALTRE ATTIVITA´ DEL GRUPPO

RIEPILOGO FINANZIARIO III ANNO

TABELLA RIASSUNTIVA COSTI (IN MILIONI DI LIRE) PER L´INTERO PROGRAMMA QUADRO

Quadro Economico complessivo del Programma Quadro del GNV

Allegato 1 - Valutazione dello stato del Progetto e proposte per il terzo anno da parte del Comitato di Valutazione

Preamble

General Section

Summary Budget Table

INTRODUZIONE

Il rapporto esecutivo relativo al III anno del Programma Quadro è stato redatto tenendo conto del Progetto triennale, dell´attività svolta nel I e II anno e rendicontata nelle relative Relazioni Consuntive, delle modifiche proposte al Progetto originario dai responsabili di Progetto, delle valutazioni sull´attività del II anno e dei suggerimenti sull´attività del III anno dati dal Comitato di Valutazione e riportati nell´Allegato 1.

Il presente progetto esecutivo non si discosta sostanzialmente da quello originale, eccetto l´inserimento di un Progetto di un anno relativo alla “Predisposizione di uno scenario di rischio in caso di eruzione in mare nella zona ad est di Panarea per finalità di protezione civile” elaborato su richiesta del Dipartimento della Protezione Civile da Franco Barberi, Università di Roma3.

Il progetto è stato giudicato favorevolmente dal Comitato di Valutazione ed il relativo importo è imputato alla Voce “Nuovi Progetti”.

Seguendo quanto suggerito dal Comitato di Valutazione, nel terzo anno verranno intensificate le attività tendenti a coordinare le ricerche dei differenti progetti e a mettere in evidenza e sviluppare i risultati di rilevanza per la Protezione Civile attraverso:

•  l´attività del Gruppo di Lavoro istituito per curare la identificazione e messa a punto di prodotti utilizzabili dalla Protezione Civile.

• riunioni tra ricercatori di progetti focalizzati al miglioramento dei metodi o alla produzione di dati inerenti la e responsabili degli enti di sorveglianza.

Oltre al coordinamento dei 19 Progetti di ricerca, il GNV, coerentemente con quanto indicato nel Programma Quadro, curerà la divulgazione e informazione sui vulcani attraverso:

• la gestione e il miglioramento dei Centri Operativi di Stromboli e Vulcano;

• il progetto di divulgazione implementato sotto la responsabilità di Roberto Scandone dell´Università di Roma 3;

• la gestione ed il miglioramento del proprio sito WEB.

I risultati ottenuti alla fine del terzo anno, ultimo del Programma Quadro triennale, verranno valutati dal Comitato di Valutazione e presentati ad un Congresso conclusivo.

Le emergenze che si sono verificate all´Etna, Stromboli e Panarea nel corso del 2002 hanno assorbito i fondi previsti per i nuovi progetti, i quali sono stati impiegati per finanziare interventi straordinari di gruppi di ricerca esterni all´INGV e afferenti al Programma Quadro GNV.

Questi interventi sono ancora in corso e i relativi rapporti saranno allegati al rapporto esecutivo del terzo anno.

Si ricorda che le linee di ricerca stabilite dal Programma Quadro triennale sono:

1.     SVILUPPO DI METODOLOGIE DI SORVEGLIANZA

2.     SCENARI ERUTTIVI E VALUTAZIONE DELLA PERICOLOSITA´

3.     DEFINIZIONE DEL RISCHIO, LIVELLI DI ALLERTA E GESTIONE DEL TERRITORIO

4.     SVILUPPO E APPLICAZIONE DI METODI DI TELERILEVAMENTO

5.     METODI INNOVATIVI ED INTEGRATI PER LO STUDIO DELLA STRUTTURA DEI VULCANI

6.     INDAGINI SULLE PARTI SOMMERSE DEI VULCANI ATTIVI ITALIANI

7.     CAMPI FLEGREI

Per il terzo anno sono stati quindi finanziati 19 progetti di ricerca di seguito riportati:

Qui di seguito sono riportati:

• gli obiettivi delle ricerche del terzo anno, distinti per progetto e per tema;

• il preventivo finanziario.

OBIETTIVI PREVISTI ALLA FINE DEL TERZO ANNO

LINEA 1: SVILUPPO DI METODOLOGIE DI SORVEGLIANZA

Progetto 01: “Emissioni gassose diffuse in aree vulcaniche. Aspetti geochimici, strutturali e modelli fisici del processo. Sviluppo di tecniche di monitoraggio”

Responsabile: Giovanni Chiodini

• Realizzazione di indagini specifiche sui vulcani attivi Italiani (Campi Flegrei, Vesuvio, Ischia, Vulcano, Etna, Pantelleria, Lipari) ed a Nisyros (Grecia) per l´individuazione e la misura delle DDS attive associate.

•  Miglioramento delle tecniche per la misura del degassamento diffuso e delle energie termiche rilasciate.

• Misure della composizione isotopica dei gas del suolo, misure dirette del flusso termico, indagini sul paleo-degassamento, studi delle falde interessate dall´apporto di gas, ecc.) riguarderanno le DDS associate ai vulcani campani ed in particolare l´area anomala della Solfatara di Pozzuoli.

• Elaborazione di un ‘atlante´ delle strutture a degassamento diffuso che interessano i vulcani Italiani.

Progetto 02: “Sviluppo di un sistema spettroscopico integrato per la rivelazione remota e in continua di gas vulcanici”

Responsabile: Paolo De Natale

• Sviluppo di due spettrometri con diodi laser a semiconduttore – DLS1 & DLS2, di uno spettrometro che genera frequenze differenza in cristalli non-lineari - DFG,  con prime prove in laboratorio, di uno spettrometro basato su  un sistema laser a cascata quantica con primi test di laboratorio, e di un nuovo spettrometro di tipo DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy).

• Loro utilizzazione per misure di concentrazione (DLS1), di flusso (DOAS), e di rapporti isotopici (DLS2 & DFG) di specie gassose ai Campi Flegrei, a Vulcano, all´Etna, e, probabilmente, anche ai Colli Albani o al Vesuvio. Verranno realizzate misure di concentrazione in tempo reale di CO2, H2O, SO2,  H2S, di rapporto SO2/H2S. Inoltre, si effettueranno misure in campo del rapporto isotopico 13CO2/12CO2, rispetto allo standard, su campioni di gas vulcanici, con una frequenza di ripetizione pari a una determinazione ogni 30 minuti, circa.

Progetto 03: “Innovazione tecnologica ed automazione nelle applicazioni integrate dei metodi elettromagnetici e dei campi di potenziale in aree vulcaniche attive”

Responsabile: Ciro Del Negro

Tomografie integrate dei campi di potenziale ed elettromagnetici in ambiente vulcanico

• Innovazione tecnologica e sviluppo di strumenti virtuali nel monitoraggio dell´attività vulcanica

• Approcci non tradizionali per l´elaborazione automatica di dati acquisiti da reti di monitoraggio vulcanico

Progetto 04: “Caratteristiche chimiche ed isotopiche dei gas e delle acque del Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, Ischia e Vulcano: valutazione del rischio vulcanico”

Responsabile: Damiano Stanzione

• Campagne periodiche di misura della composizione chimica, isotopica e radioattività di 10-15 pozzi e sorgenti d´acqua al Vesuvio, ai Campi Flegrei e a Vulcano.

• Campagne periodiche di misura della composizione chimica e isotopica di fluidi fumarolici  ai Campi Flegrei (Solfatara di Pozzuoli, Pisciarelli, Terme di Agnano); al Vesuvio (fumarole al cratere e a Torre del Greco); ad Ischia (Fumarola Donna Rachele, Fumarola Cimmento Rosso); a Vulcano (Fumarole cratere La Fossa, fumarole alla Spiaggia di Levante)

• Elaborazione di modelli chimico-isotopici di degassamento di acquiferi vulcanici, al fine di interpretare le variazioni isotopiche del contenuto in ¹³C indotte nel sistema carbonatico delle acque di falda da processi di degassamento.

Progetto 05: “Studio Multidisciplinare per la Definizione del budget di massa e di energia nei vulcani attivi italiani”

Responsabile: Mariano Valenza

• Analisi della composizione chimica e dell´output del plume con diverse tecniche (COSPEC, FTIR, Filter packs).

• Individuazione di aree di anomalia di CO₂ in settori non esplorati dell´edificio Etneo e misure di CO₂ in un pozzo appositamente realizzato nel versante orientale dell´Etna.

• Meccanismi e cinetiche nei processi di interazione acqua roccia. Confronto fra dati sperimentali e composizione delle acque naturali. Caratterizzazione isotopica della ricarica meteorica.

• Ricostruzione e quantificazione del sistema idrologico e geochimico dell´Etna. Modelli di circolazione computerizzati delle falde.

• Valutazione dell´estensione e della composizione dell´acquifero termale profondo dell´Etna.

LINEA 2: SCENARI ERUTTIVI E VALUTAZIONE DELLA PERICOLOSITA´

Progetto 06: “Studi e costraints su stoccaggi intermedi, risalita e condotti attraverso la modellizzazione dei campi di strain, e tomografia in velocità e attenuazione all´Etna”

Responsabile: Maurizio Bonafede

• Modellizzazione dei campi di strain provocati dall´ azione di condotti elongati verticalmente.

• Influenza delle discontinuità strutturali su anomalie di gravità, deformazioni e sforzi.

• Tomografia in attenuazione all´ Etna.

• Simulazione di sorgenti deformative attraverso l´ utilizzo di metodi numerici.

• Definizione del sistema di alimentazione magmatico dell´Etna tramite l´uso di dati sismologici e petrologici.

• Definizione di scenari eruttivi per l´Etna sulla base di indagini multidisciplinari integrate.

• Studio della sorgente sismica all´Etna tramite la determinazione del tensore momento completo di terremoti locali.

Progetto 07: “Pericolosità del vulcano Stromboli”

Responsabile: Mauro Rosi

• Miglioramento delle conoscenze sul funzionamento del sistema magmatico attuale dello Stromboli ed elaborazione di un modello concettuale dei parossismi.

• Definizione delle caratteristiche e della probabilità di accadimento di un nuovo collasso della Sciara del Fuoco.

• Sviluppo di un codice di calcolo per la simulazione di maremoti generati da frane che si distaccano da un pendio subaereo o sottomarino e individuazione di aree esposte a pericolo.

• Ricostruzione dei processi evolutivi nel serbatoio (serbatoi) magmatico/i e stima della profondità.

• Caratterizzazione del basamento del vulcano e dei processi di interazione fra questo ed i magmi emessi.

Progetto 08: “Eruzioni Esplosive di Vulcani Attivi Italiani: Scenari Eruttivi, Carte di pericolosità e di Rischio: Vesuvio, Vulcano e Lipari”

Responsabile: Roberto Santacroce

• Ricostruzione dei sistemi di alimentazione per i vulcani Vesuvio, Vulcano e a Lipari.

• Dinamica eruttiva e meccanismi di trasporto e di messa in posto (Vesuvio e Vulcano).

• Zonazione della pericolosità e del rischio (Vesuvio e Vulcano).

Progetto 09: “Scenari eruttivi attraverso ricerche di modellistica fisica e vulcanologia sperimentale”

Responsabile: Raffaello Trigila

• Valutazione dei gradienti di concentrazione dei volatili alle P e T di cristallizzazione dei fusi magmatici (camere magmatiche intracrostali) dei principali vulcani attivi italiani.

• Determinazione dei campi di sforzo osservati sulle varie aree vulcaniche.

• Simulazione dei campi di sforzo e delle sue variazioni attese per diversi tipi di sorgenti, e per diversi meccanismi di risalita magmatica, sui vulcani analizzati.

• Modellistica dell´interazione magma-acqua a diversi regimi di flusso dell´acqua interagente nei confronti della ripartizione dell´energia prodotta fra espansione del sistema e trasporto di massa.

• Applicazione dei modelli di fratturazione a casi reali eruttivi (Vesuvio) o di deformazione del suolo (Campi Flegrei).

Progetto 10: “Studio dei depositi piroclastici dell´Etna finalizzato alla ricostruzione delle principali eruzioni esplosive ed alla valutazione della loro pericolosità e del loro impatto ambientale”

Responsabile: Luigina Vezzoli

• Definizione dei possibili scenari eruttivi al vulcano Etna.

• Valutazione della pericolosita´ delle eruzioni esplosive al vulcano Etna.

Progetto 18: “Pericolosità associata alla risalita di fluidi endogeni nei Colli Albani, Roma”

Responsabile: Renato Funiciello

• identificazione delle zone di emissione anomala, caratteristiche ed origine del gas emesso, eventuali rapporti con le strutture tettoniche, con la presenza di livelli superficiali impermeabili, con la geometria della falda idrica e le variazioni della stessa sia stagionali sia indotte da emungimenti; raccomandazioni per la gestione corretta del territorio;

• sintesi dei risultati ottenuti dalle misure in continuo: valutazione sulle cause delle variazioni del livello della falda idrica e relative raccomandazioni; valutazione delle variazioni temporali del flusso di CO₂ e delle eventuali correlazioni con l´attività sismica;

• valutazione dei livelli raggiunti dalle concentrazioni di CO₂ e H₂S in prossimità e all´interno delle abitazioni e raccomandazioni per la mitigazione del rischio;

• valutazione della pericolosità dei laghi di Albano e Nemi in connessione ad eventuali apporti termici e di massa dal basso; raccomandazioni per eventuali necessità di monitoraggio continuo e definizione dello scenario dei fenomeni possibili.

Progetto 19: “Predisposizione di uno scenario di rischio in caso di eruzione in mare nella zona ad est di Panarea per finalità di protezione civile”

Responsabile: Franco Barberi

• Controllo dell´effettiva esistenza di una struttura craterica sottomarina nella zona degli isolotti (Lisca Bianca, Bottaro, Lisca Nera, Dattilo e Panarelli)

• Definizione delle caratteristiche (natura, età, provenienza) dei depositi piroclastici più recenti dell´isola e datazione del duomo di lava acida di Basiluzzo. Due sono i depositi più recenti descritti dai lavori precedenti sui quali si concentrerà l´attenzione dello studio: il banco di scorie basiche (formazione di Punta Falcone 2), il brown tuff di Punta Torrione

LINEA 3: DEFINIZIONE DEL RISCHIO, LIVELLI DI ALLERTA E GESTIONE DEL TERRITORIO

Progetto 11: “Identificazione e interpretazione dei pattern sismici pre-eruttivi su vulcani effusivi ed esplosivi”

Responsabile: Warner Marzocchi

• Verranno compiute le analisi  per distinguere le caratteristiche degli sciami sismici “precursori” rispetto a crisi sismiche non associate ad eruzioni vulcaniche.

• Formulazione di un  modello di evoluzione del sistema in relazione ai possibili meccanismi di apertura della camera magmatica.

• Ricostruzione di scenari eruttivi comprendenti la casistica raccolta.

Progetto 12: “Sistemi di GIS per costruire in rete cartografia tematica in aree vulcaniche”

Responsabile: Maria Teresa Pareschi

• La creazione (o completamento) di DEM per i  principali vulcani attivi italiani: Eolie, Vesuvio-Campi Flegrei, Etna.

• Creazione di GIS per le aree vulcaniche: Eolie, Etna, Vesuvio-Campi-Flegrei.

LINEA 4: SVILUPPO E APPLICAZIONE DI METODI DI TELERILEVAMENTO

Progetto 13: “Sviluppo ed applicazione di tecniche di telerilevamento per il monitoraggio dei vulcani attivi italiani”

Responsabile: Mauro Coltelli

• Rilevamento mediante tecniche DInSAR delle deformazioni del suolo all´Etna, Isole Eolie e Campi Flegrei.

• Misura delle variazioni topografiche degli edifici vulcanici dovuti all´attività eruttiva (p.e. coni eruttivi, collassi calderici, ecc.) e dei movimenti di porzioni più o meno vaste dei versanti degli edifici soggette ad instabilità gravitativa.

• Messa a punto di tecniche per il rilevamento delle anomalie termiche mediante l´approccio denominato dual band technique.

• Messa in opera e test del nuovo radar Doppler Voldorad-2 da postazione fissa all´Etna con controllo remoto dell´antenna basculabile.

• Sviluppo di un sistema di misura della concentrazione dei gas nei plumes vulcanici troposferici mediante immagini telerilevate da satellite.

LINEA 5: METODI INNOVATIVI ED INTEGRATI PER LO STUDIO DELLA STRUTTURA DEI VULCANI

Progetto 14: “Metodologie Sismiche Integrate per lo studio della struttura dei vulcani attivi. Applicazione alla caldera dei Campi Flegrei”

Responsabile: Aldo Zollo

• Applicazione di tecniche 2D/3D di elaborazione ed interpretazione di dati sismici non convenzionali, attivi e passivi, in mezzi fortemente eterogenei.

• Determinazione di una dettagliata immagine 3D della struttura vulcanica a scala locale e regionale rappresentata da modelli crostali di velocità e di attenuazione delle onde sismiche. Risoluzione ed analisi degli errori dei parametri ottenuti. In particolare, gli studi saranno mirati alla identificazione e ricostruzione del possibile sistema di alimentazione dei Campi Flegrei.

• Le immagini di velocità e di attenuazione così ottenute, con le relative stime di incertezza e di risoluzione spaziale, saranno confrontate alle differenti misure geologiche/geofisiche di campagna e di laboratorio. Questo permetterà di controllare la consistenza dei modelli proposti, per investigare le possibili implicazioni vulcanologiche e di eseguire modellizzazioni termiche e meccaniche.

• Costruzione ed implementazione di un archivio di agevole consultazione di dati sismici digitali a tre componenti di micro terremoti e di scoppi registrati nella regione dei Campi Flegrei.

• Analisi preliminare dei dati SERAPIS.

LINEA 6: INDAGINI SULLE PARTI SOMMERSE DEI VULCANI ITALIANI

Progetto 15: “Conoscenza delle parti sommerse dei vulcani italiani e valutazione del potenziale di rischio vulcanico”

Responsabili: Francesco Latino Chiocci, Michael Marani

• Ricostruzione del modello tridimensionale della superficie (DTMM).

• Caratterizzazione geotecnica dei fenomeni di instabilità sottomarini e dei fenomeni subaerei collegati.

• Indagini sulle parti sommerse dell´Isola d´Ischia con definizione dei processi evolutivi sulla base dei dati marini.

• Analisi della pericolosità delle porzioni sommerse dei vulcani dell´arco Eoliano, di Ustica e dei monti sottomarini centrotirrenici (Marsili e Vavilov).

• Indagini sulla porzione sommersa dell´apparato dell´Etna.

• Indagini sulle porzioni sommerse di Stromboli e Vulcano e studio dei fenomeni di instabilità;

• vulcanismo e geologia strutturale dell´Isola d´Ischia

LINEA 7: CAMPI FLEGREI

Progetto 16: “Definizione e zonazione della pericolosità vulcanica della caldera risorgente dei Campi Flegrei e suoi effetti sull´uomo e sull´ambiente”

Responsabile: Giovanni Orsi

• Definizione delle principali fasi deformative del margine tirrenico dell´Appennino Campano e della Piana Campana. Ricostruzione della storia vulcanica e deformativa della caldera dei Campi Flegrei, delle relazioni intercorrenti tra strutture tettoniche, vulcano-tettoniche e fenomeni eruttivi. Inversione tomografico-probabilistica dei dati MT ed MV nell´area vulcanica dei Campi Flegrei. Elaborazione di un modello strutturale 3D dell´area Napoletano-flegrea basato su dati magnetici, gravimetrici e sismici 
• Identificazione dei magmi primari e definizione della loro genesi e dei processi di differenziazione. Definizione del meccanismo di crescita del serbatoio magmatico che alimentò l´eruzione dell´IC. Studio dei processi evolutivi che hanno operato nel sistema magmatico negli ultimi 100 ka. Definizione del meccanismo e della durata del processo di mescolamento/mingling che ha operato nel sistema flegreo negli ultimi 12 ka. Stima della T, P e del contenuto in volatili del magma presente nella camera al momento delle più significative eruzioni e stima del degassamento pre- e sin-eruttivo. Definizione delle relazioni intercorrenti tra dinamica eruttiva e dinamica di svuotamento della camera. Modellazione dello stato attuale del sistema magmatico flegreo mediante l´elaborazione di tutti i dati prodotti.

• Ricostruzione della sequenza stratigrafica dei depositi e della dinamica delle eruzioni più significative della caldera flegrea negli ultimi 12 ka, e stima dei loro parametri fisici. Elaborazione di carte di distribuzione dei depositi da flusso e da caduta delle singole eruzioni esplosive, e valutazione del carico al suolo dei depositi da caduta. Ricostruzione delle dinamiche di frammentazione e di trasporto di depositi, rappresentativi dell´intero intervallo di variabilità delle dinamiche e della magnitudo delle eruzioni verificatesi negli ultimi 5 ka. Determinazione della temperatura di messa in posto, direzione di scorrimento e dell´area sorgente di flussi piroclastici, attraverso misure di suscettività magnetica e magnetizzazione rimanente, e cronologia relativa delle eruzioni in base allo studio delle variazioni paleo-secolari. Definizione degli scenari eruttivi attesi in caso di ripresa del vulcanismo.

• Simulazione numerica della dispersione dei prodotti di caduta in seguito ad eruzioni esplosive con formazione di colonne convettive pliniane. Simulazione numerica della messa in posto dei flussi piroclastici in seguito al collasso della colonna eruttiva. Valutazione della vulnerabilità vulcanica delle strutture edilizie e delle popolazioni in relazione ad un´eruzione esplosiva nella caldera dei Campi Flegrei

Progetto 17: “Simulazione di scenari eruttivi ai Campi Flegrei sulla base di studi stratigrafici, di laboratorio e numerici e implicazioni di pericolosità vulcanica”

Responsabile: Paolo Papale

• Studi stratigrafici, granulometrici, analisi dei componenti, e campionamento dei depositi delle eruzioni del Monte Nuovo e di Astroni.
• Analisi petrochimiche sui depositi delle eruzioni del Monte Nuovo e di Astroni; studi sulle inclusioni fluide in campioni provenienti da depositi delle eruzioni dell´Ignimbrite Campana e di Agnano Monte Spina.
• Parametrizzazione della reologia per liquidi magmatici di composizione corrispondente a quella delle eruzioni studiate e contenenti in sospensione cristalli e bolle di gas.
• Studi di petrologia sperimentale e sulle inclusioni fluide di campioni appartenenti all´Ignimbrite Campana, e studi sperimentali di equilibrio chimico; determinazione della pressione, temperatura, e contenuto in volatili in camera magmatica; studi di petrologia sperimentale su eruzioni più giovani. Sintesi dei risultati di petrologia sperimentale; ulteriori esperimenti sui processi cinetici associati alla risalita del magma o a processi di mixing.
• Studi sperimentali di frammentazione del magma volti alla parametrizzazione dei fattori che determinano la distribuzione granulometrica in funzione di pressione, temperatura, e tasso di depressurizzazione; parametrizzazione dei fattori tessiturali di controllo nella determinazione del carico di rottura dela magma e dell´efficienza della frammentazione.
• Determinazione sperimentale della diffusività dell´anidride carbonica a pressione costante e per varie temperature; analisi dei prodotti sperimentali, e determinazione dei coefficienti di diffusività. Esperimenti di diffusione per campioni contenenti sia acqua che anidride carbonica; studio della dipendenza dei coefficienti di diffusione dalla temperatura.

FINANZIAMENTI RELATIVI AL III ANNO

I costi relativi a ciascun Progetto sono riportati nella seguente Tabella:

La ripartizione finanziaria per le singole Unità di Ricerca è riportata nella sessione successiva.

La Tabella seguente riassume i costi previsti per il 2003 per la gestione del GNV e le altre attività del Gruppo

RIEPILOGO FINANZIARIO III ANNO del Programma Quadro

Il Programma Quadro del GNV è iniziato il 1 luglio 2000 ed è pertanto sfasato di 6 mesi rispetto alle date previste dalla convenzione stipulata in data 17 ottobre 2001 tra Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia e il Dipartimento di Protezione Civile.

La tabella riassuntiva seguente riporta i costi dei singoli progetti di ricerca per l´intero Programma Quadro.

TABELLA RIASSUNTIVA COSTI (IN MILIONI DI LIRE) PER L´INTERO PROGRAMMA QUADRO

La tabella successiva riporta il Quadro Economico complessivo del Programma Quadro del GNV, tenendo presente le diverse voci di finanziamento e le diverse voci di spesa.

PQ:

Programma Quadro  per l´attività di sorveglianza e ricerca sui vulcani attivi Italiani

Gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanologia 1999-2001

Conv. INGV-PC:

Convenzione tra il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile e l´Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia per l´attività di sorveglianza sismica e vulcanica sul territorio nazionale, di consulenza tecnico - scientifica e di studi sui rischi sismico e vulcanico anche con riferimento a zone di particolare interesse (1/1/2001 - 31/12/2003). Stipulata il 17/10/2001.

Allegato 1

Gruppo Nazionale di Vulcanologia

2000-2003 Framework Program

Valutazione dello stato del Progetto e proposte per il terzo anno da parte del Comitato di Valutazione

Report of the Evaluation Committee on the Second Year of Activity

Preamble

The GNV evaluation Committee is composed of:

Domenico Giardini, ETH Zurich

Gudmundur Sigvaldasson, Nordic Volcanological Observatory, Rejkjavik

Marjorie Wilson, Leeds University,

Paolo Gasparini, University of Napoli Federico II.

In the second year of the project the Committee has performed the following duties:

• it reviewed the progress of the 2^nd Year of the GNV 2000-2003 Framework Program;
• it evaluated in a ad-hoc meeting with the project directors (October 24-25, 2002) the delay in the programme implementation originated by the irregular payment schedule;
• it gave recommendations on the implementation and funding ceilings for the 3^rd Year of the project.

To complete the evaluation of the 2^nd Year of the GNV Programme, the Evaluation Committee met in Roma on January 27-28, 2003. The present report summarizes the evaluation of the state of the project and the recommendations for the 3^rd Year. All opinions and recommendations of the Evaluation Committee were unanimous.

This report is composed of:

a general section of review and recommendations for the implementation of the 3^rd Year,

the Minutes of the EC meeting of October 24-25, 2002,

• a summary budget table
• of the individual project evaluation sheets.

It is intended that each coordinator will receive this general section and the evaluation sheet for his own project.

GENERAL SECTION

Overall assessment of GNV Framework Programme

The GNV Evaluation Committee is very pleased with the overall level of progress in all projects. The scientific and technical developments are progressing in line with the Executive Project of the 2^nd Year and within the overall goals and schedule of the GNV Framework Programme 2000-2003.

The EC is also very pleased to see the professional efficiency and enthusiastic engagement demonstrated by many project participants in occasion of the recent and on-going volcanic emergencies on Etna,  Stromboli and Panarea. The dedicated surveillance and scientific activities and the interaction with Civil Protection emergency activities have detracted energies from the GNV program (for a good cause !) but have at the same time demonstrated the high value of the GNV structure and activities.

The EC recognizes the irregularity and delays in the payment of the project funds in the 2^nd Year. A meeting with the most of the project coordinators was held on  October 24-25, 2002 (minutes attached) to verify the need for possible variations to the programme schedule. The EC notes that the delays affected some personnel contracts and field work, but did not produce a significant delay in the overall programme.

The EC compliments the coordinators and researchers  for having carried out their research and monitoring activities under irregular funding conditions and during volcanic emergencies.

GNV schedule and deadlines

After evaluation of the Activity Reports for the 2^nd Year, the EC confirms the proposed schedule for the completion of the GNV framework programme:

            February 15, 2003                   Presentation of Executive Project 3^rd Year by GNV

            March 31, 2003                       Presentation of financial report 2^nd Year by GNV

            December 31, 2003                Completion of research activities for GNV 2000-2003

            March 31, 2004                       Presentation of final project reports

            April 2004                               Final evaluation by GNV EC

            June 2004                              Presentation of final GNV 2000-2003 Report

To maintain this schedule, it is expected that the following payment schedule for the Year III will be maintained:

            June 2003                              1^st tranche, 2^nd Year GNV

            October 2003                                     2^nd tranche, 3^rd Year GNV

Following the success of the first GNV Assembly organized in Roma in October 2001, GNV is planning two more annual assemblies before June 2004. The second assembly has been delayed to accomodate the on-going work in the volcanic emergencies on Stromboli and Etna, and plans are now underway to hold it in Roma in spring 2003, hosted by the Università di Roma III. The third GNV assembly is planned for the spring 2004.

Comments on the GNV evaluation process

The EC is pleased to see the improved quality of the Activity Reports of the 2^nd Year presented by  most projects, and suggests that GNV adopts a strict policy of reporting in order to facilitate evaluation procedures and  to ensure an easier flow of information among projects and within the larger scientific community.

The evaluation of the 1^st Year of GNV took place in November 2001, jointly organized in parallel with the annual assembly of GNV. This year the GNV assembly has been postponed, to avoid interfering with the surveillance and field investigations related to the on-going emergencies on Stromboli , Etna and Panarea. The EC recognizes the high value of the GNV annual assembly in providing an integrated view of the GNV research activities and encourages GNV to continue organizing the annual assemblies, also to facilitate a comparative evaluation process.

The Activity Reports presented for the 2^nd Year do not contain budgetary information nor detailed data on the personnel employed under GNV contract; such information will be combined in the GNV Financial Report in March 2003. The EC notes that this procedure does not reflect  international budgeting and reporting standards, which specify expenditure categories (such as travel, personnel, equipment) and the rules to pass unused contributions to the next budget year.  

This EC approved the budget structure of the whole GNV Framework Programme and thus strived since the start to include in the evaluation process also the financial and personnel aspects of the projects. We recognize, however, that the reporting schedule and the irregularity in the GNV payment schedule do not allow us to cover in the evaluation process also the budget and personnel aspects. Thereby this EC declines to take responsibility for all matters related to budgetary and personal issues for the present GNV Framework Programme.

The EC recommends that in the future GNV and D.P.C. synchronize the reporting of activities, finances and personnel, and maintain a strict payment schedule, in order to allow a smoother program development as well as a consistent assessment of the budget structure of the individual projects and the evaluation of  the support needs of individual research units.

Recommendations for the 3^rd Year

In order to improve the flow of information between the projects, the D.P.C. and the larger scientific community, GNV should set up as soon as possible a structured database containing at least the following classes of documents:

·      all the official GNV documents, including the activity reports and executive plans of individual research units and projects;

·      summary tables and lists of contracts, budgets, referenced publications and other information suitable to provide a comprehensive image of the GNV Framework Programme;

·      a complete collection of all the scientific papers and posters published  or presented with GNV support, in PDF form.

Access to the database should be regulated as needed.

The EC stresses the need to improve the integration among projects in the last year of implementation of this GNV programme. This recommendation is valid in general and specifically for those projects which work on similar issues and on the same volcanoes. The program of the GNV assemblies will need to take this need for integration into account. In addition, individual recommendations for intra- and inter-project coordination are given in the individual project evaluation sheets.

The EC judges as reasonable the overall level of scientific publications presented by the different projects, taking into account also the technical character of some projects and the volcanic emergencies in 2002. The EC recommends that all projects strive to keep improving their publication record across all research units, in order to fulfil the GNV expectations for scientific excellence and to provide independent validation of the scientific and technical results used in volcanic surveillance and risk evaluation.

Relation with the Dipartimento di Protezione Civile

In its evaluation of the 1^st Year, the EC requested that all projects plan for the 3^rd Year a specific phase of implementation of the results and tools developed with GNV support, with special emphasis to tools and methods of significance for the Italian D.P.C., such as methods for the surveillance of Italian volcanoes and for the assessment of volcanic risk scenarios. The EC is very pleased to learn that a joint Working Group has now been formed by D.P.C., INGV and GNV to coordinate these applications. All projects should make specific plans to participate in this evaluation.

Development of an integrated GNV database and GIS

The EC sees an urgent need to set up an integrated database and GIS for each major volcano, and at least for Stromboli, Etna, Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei. The information layers should include all the significant results, maps, grids and original databases from the different projects and disciplines covered by GNV. All data should be geo-referenced and made uniform to allow their use and comparison in a unified GIS.

The functionality of the database and GIS should serve the following purposes:

• to improve the coordination between the GNV projects and avoid the dispersion of the GNV results, and to avoid each project being left to develop a database/GIS by itself;
• to provide the scientific community with a powerful tool to display, correlate and integrate data, investigate the volcanic processes at different spatial and time scale, improve the multidisciplinary understanding of volcanic structure and processes, and evaluate areas for future common work;
• to increase the reliability of the surveillance of Italian volcanoes and the rapid assessment of volcanic hazard and risk, by creating the technical framework for the integration of thematic maps and scientific results with monitoring activities and real-time data;
• to provide the interface for the development of tools and scenarios for use by the D.P.C.;
• to visualize exciting scientific discoveries for the general public and for education and outreach purposes.

The EC recommends that GNV and INGV submit a coordinated project proposal to D.P.C. This project should continue at least to the end of 2004 in order to ensure the incorporation of the results of the on-going GNV Programme. We recommend to allocate the funds foreseen for the 3^rd Year of Project 12 to the GNV Direction to initiate this new initiative, to incorporate the activities of Project 12 in the new project, and to evaluate as starting point the results of the on-going EU GEOWARN project, which uses Campi Flegrei as a test-area, and the GIS systems under development at Osservatorio Vesuviano.

The project “Elaboration of a risk scenario for Civil Protection purpose in case of a submarine eruption to the East of Panarea island” coordinated by Franco Barberi has been submitted to GNV upon request from the Chief of Civil Protection and the President of INGV to be possibly financed on the budget available for the new projects.

The project has been examined by the EC to check its scientific quality and the adequacy of requested budget.

The EC made some observations which were discussed directly with the proponent.

The EC believes that the proposed project is sound from a scientific viewpoint and the requested budget is adequate, except for age determination, which can be conveniently performed with a maximum cost of 15.000 Euros.

EC proposes hence to approve the project with a budget of 40.000 Euros.

The EC approves the educational project by Roberto Scandone with a budget of 10.000 Euros.

Furthermore it assigns to the project the amount of 20.000 Euros to be used for a grant aimed at the updating and revision of the GNV website.

January 28, 2001

D. Giardini, G. Sigvaldason, M. Wilson, P. Gasparini

MINUTES October 24-25, 2002

The EC met on October 24 and 25 in Rome, at GNV, Roma.

Aim of the meeting was to review the status and progress of the 2000-2003 GNV framework programme and to check in what way the delays of payments of the project funds due for the 1^st and 2^nd years have affected single projects.

The EC evaluated the forms provided by the project coordinators and interviewed most of the coordinators, according to the schedule included in annex. Of the coordinators invited for an interview, only Stanzione did not attend, and the report submitted did not include sufficient detailes on the status of the project.

The EC reached the following general conclusions:

1. The delays affected personnel contracts and fellowships and caused a slow-down of some experimental activities, but did not produce a significant delay in the overall programme.
2. The financial support for the second year has been effectively delayed by 12 months. Therefore the EC decided to shift the deadline for submission of the annual activity reports for the 2^nd year until the end of December 2002.
3. The EC confirms that it is necessary to shift the end of the project to December 31, 2003, 3.5 years after the beginning of the programme.
4. It is foreseen that GNV assigns to some projects additional funds for the extension of 6 months of contracts and/or fellowships, based on need and detailed justified request.

The EC compliments the coordinators and researchers for having carried out their proposed research and activities even under very difficult funding conditions, and stresses that the proposed schedules for the completion of the GNV framework programme can be expected to be maintained only if the following payment schedule will be adhered to:

2^nd year, 2^nd tranche:                                    within 2002

3^rd year, 1^st tranche:                          not later than April 1st, 2003

3^rd year, final tranche:                        not later than October 2003

Evaluation Schedule

For evaluation purposes, we propose the following schedule:

2^nd year annual activity report:          December 20, 2002

3^rd year executive project:                 December 20, 2002

3^rd year and summary report:           February 2004

The next GNV Assembly is planned for January 28-30, 2003 in the Neaples area, possibly in Sorrento.

2nd year Report

-     The EC decides to keep the same format of the first year for the activity report. The coordinator report must contain, in an annex, a table with a summary of expenses for each RU for the first and second year updated to December 20, 2002.

-     A detailed list of all personnel supported with GNV funding must be produced for each project, specifying name, qualification, duty and time engagement (months, percentage) of each contract, starting from the beginning of the project. If a project is unable to use its personnel funding by the closing date of the current year, this can be also used in the following year, provided that this shift of activities and personnel is explicitly requested and justified in the Executive Project Report.

3^rd year Executive Project Report

-          The executive project for the 3rd year will maintain the same format of the last year, with a clear indication of the final objectives (instead of milestones).

-          A summary of financial resources must be provided according to the usual sub-headings.

-          Any difference from the original executive project must be justified.

-          Coordination activities must be specified.

-          It is required to give a time schedule for the accomplishment of each task.

-          Each project should describe a specific phase of implementation of the results and tools developed with GNV support; this is especially relevant for all projects which are developing tools and methods of significance for the surveillance of Italian volcanoes and for the assessment of risk scenarios.

Future evolution of GNV

The EC stresses the need to initiate as soon as possible in 2003 the programmatic activities required to design an integrated GNV framework programme to continue without interruption in 2004 the research and monitoring activities of Italian volcanoes.

All opinions and recommendations of the Evaluation Committee were unanimous.

The Board gratefully acknowledges the careful assistance and cooperation of Massimo Crescimbene and Antonella Bobbio of GNV.

January 1, 2003

the GNV Evaluation Committee:

P. Gasparini, D. Giardini, G. Sigvaldason, M. Wilson

SUMMARY BUDGET TABLE

PROJECT 1

Responsible: Giovanni CHIODINI, OV-INGV, Napoli

TITLE: Diffuse degassing in volcanic areas

GENERAL COMMENTS

The second year report contains a short, but informative, review of the activities which have taken place during Year 2 of the project. All the groups involved appear to be making good progress with the exception of RU3 (Mostacci) for Task 5 (¹⁴C tree ring project) which is still waiting for AMS data from the University of Arizona, USA. The EC considers that Task 5 is not essential for the overall success of the project and the RU3 should not receive any further funding in Year 3.

The number of publications is somewhat low, with only 5 papers in print or in press. A further 5 papers are, however, listed as in submission to high ranking international journals.

The project has already realised a number of outputs which will be direct benefit to Civil Protection. These include thematic maps of diffuse degassing (DDS) at Solfatara, Mofete, Vesuvius, Ischia, Vulcano and Lipari, and the development of a geo-statistical tool for simulating CO₂ fluxes.

The project appears to be on target to achieve 90-95% of its original aims.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The proposed budget for Year is 176 ML. The EC considers that RU3 should not receive any further funding and that the 25 ML saved should be re-distributed between the other RU5.

PROJECT 2

Responsible: Paolo DE NATALE, INO Firenze

TITLE: Development of an integrated spectroscopic system for remote and continuous monitoring of volcanic gases.

GENERAL COMMENTS

The coordinator has given a comprehensive overview of the activity, describing the planned field testing of the new instruments and subsequent upgrading. The committee is aware of the problems with the field application of the modular gas sensor for ¹³C/¹²C isotopic ratios. In view of these problems and in the absence of positive indications of a remedy within the framework of the project the committee has decided to discontinue this part of the project (RU4, F.K. Tittle).

The remaining parts of the project have produced satisfactory results in particular the implementation of the UV spectrometer. Its testing against the COSPEC method is promising (RU3)

The committee wishes to reiterate its last year´s comment that active and continuing involvement of other GNV projects dealing with volcanic gas chemistry should be maintained.

17 articles were published in international journals.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The program proposed for the 3^rd year is approved with a budget of 280 ML, with the following distribution of funds:

RU1 De Natale              130 ML

RU2 Gianfrani               100 ML

RU3 Oppenheimer         50 ML

PROJECT 3

Responsible: Ciro DEL NEGRO, INGV Catania

TITLE: Technological innovation and automation in the integrated applications of electromagnetic and potential field methods in active volcanic areas

GENERAL COMMENTS

The Activity Report provides a good summary of the on-going activities in the three main tasks and the 10 RU. The project appears to move successfully toward the achievement of the proposed goals.

As noticed in the 1^st Year evaluation, the project coordinator should strive to bring together the RU working on the inversion of geophysical data (A1, B3, C1, C2) and those working on the improvement of signal processing and detection (A2, A3, B2, B4, C3 and partly C1, C2). The project must strengthen the coordination with Project 6 to produce integrated or at least compatible imaging of the volcanic structure. The development of numerical schemes for the joint inversion of potential field and seismic data would be auspicious. Coordination with Projects 6, 9, 13 and possibly 14 in this domain should be envisaged.

The project needs to develop a well-defined implementation phase to ensure that the developed algorithms are implemented in the surveillance procedures at INGV and during volcanic emergencies.

The productivity of the different RU appears quite inhomogeneous, as noted already in the 1^st Year evaluation. In particular, the productivity of RU A2, A3 and B2 needs to be strengthened; in addition, RU B.3 presented an activity report largely duplicating the work done by the same group in Project 13.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

We recommend a budget of 242 ML for the 3^rd Year (original request 287 ML). We recommend reducing the budget of RU A2, A3 and B2 to 10 ML each, and the budget of RU B3 to 0, as RU is already funded under Project P13.

PROJECT  4

Responsible: Damiano STANZIONE, Università di Napoli “Federico II”

TITLE: Chemical and isotopic characteristics of gases and groundwaters of Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, Ischia and Vulcano: Evaluation of  the volcanic risk

GENERAL COMMENTS

The EC found the report submitted by the co-ordinator extremely disappointing. In the recommendations of the committee at the end of Year 1 of the project  it was clearly stated that:

1. The second year report must be based on clear scientific objectives
2. The project must show evidence of collaboration with other GNV projects, particularly those of Coltelli and De Natale
3. Links must be established with Osservatorio Vesuviano (OV) to discuss the transfer of baseline data

All of these recommendations appear to have been ignored which is not acceptable to the EC.

In its present form most of the activities of the 3 RUs involved appear to be dedicated to routine monitoring. The usefulness of six monthly measurements at Vesuvius, Ischia and Vulcano seems doubtful. The work of RU3 on Solfatara, particularly the He, Ne and C isotope measurements of gas samples, could provide the basis for an ongoing programme of baseline monitoring. The RU3 project responsible (Tedesco) notes that changes in same chemical parameters have been observed recently in Solfatara crater fluids but does not say what these are.

The EC stresses the importance for the results of this project to be transmitted to OV to ensure that the baseline data are not lost.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

In view of the failure of the project co-ordinator and project responsibles to engage in the wider GNV project and because of the lack of scientific focus, the EC recommends that the budget for Year 3 be reduced to 40 ML.

This should be distributed as follows:

RU Stanzione             10 ML

RU Pece                     10 ML

RU Tedesco               20 ML

These budget allocations are provided on condition that the data collected so far are transferred to GNV and OV for the benefit of Civil Protection.

PROJECT 5

Responsible: Mariano VALENZA, Università di Palermo

TITLE: Multidisciplinary investigation on the mass and energy budgets in the Italian active volcanoes

GENERAL COMMENTS

The coordinator has given a comprehensive overview combining the results of the 9 RUs into a coherent picture. The committee´s comments on revised distribution of funds have been observed. The committee appreciates the change in plans resulting from the recent eruption of Mt. Etna and the increased scientific value provided by this event.

Considering the marginal value to the main objectives of the project the committee understands that RU5 (mineralogy of volcanic sublimates) is discontinued.

The committee has gained a relatively favourable impression of the 2^nd year´s report, but it notes a peculiar confusion of dates in the RU4 report.

Furthermore the committee notes good interaction with Project #2 concerning testing of an UV spectrometers for SO₂ flux estimates. Such interaction should be maintained with other GNV projects such as Project #1, Chiodini.

6-7 papers were published in international journals

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The program proposed for the 3^rd year is approved with a budget of 285 ML.

PROJECT 6

Responsible: Maurizio BONAFEDE, Università di Bologna

TITLE: Study and constraints on intermediate storage, magma uprise and conduits through modelling of strain fields, velocity and attenuation tomography at Mt. Etna

GENERAL COMMENTS

The Activity Report provides a good summary of the on-going activities in the four main tasks and the 8 RU The project appears to move successfully toward the achievement of the proposed goals. The project has been restructured to take into account the recommendations of the EC after the 1^st Year of activities. A new task has been added: “Real time continuous monitoring implementation”.

As noticed in the 1^st Year evaluation, the project must strengthen the coordination with Project 3, 9, 13 and possibly 14 to produce integrated or at least compatible imaging of the Etna structure, as well as numerical schemes for the joint inversion of potential field and seismic data.

RU 5 Gresta is working on precursory seismic activity and pattern recognition, which is also of relevance for Project 11, and is requested to remain in close contact with the P11 coordinator.

The project needs to continue strengthening the application of structural images and numerical tools to surveillance procedures at INGV and to real-time eruption monitoring. Specifically, we envisage progress in the following areas: real-time continuous monitoring of GPS and other geodetic instrumentation; real-time detection algorithms; rapid processing of geodetic anomalies to map episodes of dyke intrusion and magma migration; earthquake location using a 3D model and 3D ray-tracing; rapid characterization of complete focal mechanisms, including non-double couple and volumetric components; on-line mapping tools for continuous monitoring of activity rate and b-value.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

We recommend a budget of 240 ML for the 3^rd Year (original request 280 ML).

The allocation of this budget is conditional to the presentation of a complete table listing all positions (names, qualifications, number of months) supported by GNV in 2000-2002 and those to be supported in 2003. We recommend reducing the budget of RU5 to take into account the availability of unused funds for personnel from the 1^st and 2^nd Years.

PROJECT 7

Responsible: Mauro ROSI, Università di Pisa:

TITLE: Hazard assessment of Stromboli Volcano

GENERAL COMMENTS

The coordinator has given a commendable overview of the results obtained by the 11RUs. The committee acknowledges the successful project workshop of september 2002. The committee furthermore expresses its appreciation with the project member´s involvement in the scientific study of the recent eruptions in Etna, Stromboli and Panarea and services given to Civil Defence Authorities in that connection.

The project has 9 publications in international journals. A geological map of Stromboli has been prepared.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The program proposed for the 3^rd year is approved with a budget of 292 ML including expenses detailed by the RU Vittore. A budget of 8 ML is allocated at the GNV direction to purchase the instrument required by RU Carapezza.

PROJECT 8

Responsible: Roberto SANTACROCE, Università di Pisa

TITLE: Explosive eruptions of Italian active volcanoes – eruptive scenarios, hazard and risk maps: Vesuvius, Vulcano and Lipari

GENERAL COMMENTS

This appears to be a well coordinated project which is producing important results of direct relevance for Civil Protection e.g. preliminary hazard zonation maps of areas at risk of  debris flows in the Appenine chain; simulations of slope stability in fall out deposits on steep slopes; tephra fall hazard maps of Vesuvius.

A workshop was held in September 2002 to disseminate results.

The number of  publications (15) is good and the EC considers that all the major aims are likely to be achieved to within 95% by the end of the project. It is noted that RU7  (Scaillet) has yet to publish any of their results; the EC notes, however, that RU7 appears to have conducted a large number of phase equilibrium experiments in 2002 which could form the basis for future publications.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The EC does not recommend any changes to the Year 3 budget and therefore allocates 284 ML to the project.

PROJECT 9

Responsible: Raffaello TRIGILA, Università “La Sapienza” di Roma

TITLE: Eruptive scenarios from phisical modelling and experimental volcanology

GENERAL COMMENTS

The second year report provides a comprehensive overview of the activities of the project. The co-ordinator appears to have made significant progress in integrating the results of the various RUs in the construction of eruption scenarios. This should be of substantial benefit to Civil Protection.

The 15 RUs have produced 33 publications in 2002 either in print or in press, with a further 13 in submission. These are not equally distributed across the 4 main tasks. The EC notes that aspects of Task 4 have been delayed because of the closure of the Roma experimental laboratory from December 2001 to July 2002.

The project co-ordinator is asked to reinstate to the project the RU of Ripepe who should be allocated a small budget of 10 ML to continue his work on Stromboli which is considered of  importance for Civil Protection.

The EC asks the co-ordinator to review the activities of all the RUs to ensure that they will achieve their original objectives by the end of the project and that results of publishable quality are identified as soon as possible. RUs 2 and 9 (Gaeta and Dolfi) appear to be slowing down in their activity.

Overall the EC expects that the project will achieve 90% of the original objectives by the end (mid 2004).

The co-ordinator should ensure that collaborative links are established with other GNV projects.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The EC recommends at budget of 637 ML for Year 3 which should be distributed by the project co-ordinator as appropriate, noting the new allocation of 10 ML for RU Ripepe.

PROJECT 10

Responsible: Luigina VEZZOLI, Università dell´Insubria – Como

TITLE: Studies of Etna pyroclastic deposits aimed to largest explosive eruptions reconstruction and volcanic hazard assessment

GENERAL COMMENTS

The coordinator has provided an overview of the activities, both the Holocene history of tephra production in Etna and the search for ash layers in off-shore drill cores. This is an interesting and important study and the report  would have benefited form somewhat greater detail.

The productivity is moderate, with 2 papers in international journals.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The EC approves the program presented for the 3^rd year with a budget of 110 ML.

PROJECT 11

Coordinator: Warner MARZOCCHI, OV-INGV, Napoli

TITLE: Identification and interpretation of the pre-eruptive seismic patterns for the worldwide effusive and explosive volcanoes

GENERAL COMMENTS

This remains a successful and well-focused project, with a good achievement of 2^nd Year objectives and an excellent publication record. The coordinator is asked to maintain close contact to RU Gresta in Project 6, which can provide interesting contributions.

A request for additional resources to RU1 (cooperation with C. Newhall) and RU4 (additional postdoctoral position and related expenses, to focus on risk scenarios) is approved.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

We recommend a budget of 123 ML for the 3^rd Year, of which 70 ML for the planned activities of the project, 16 ML for additional activities of RU1 and 37 ML for additional activities of RU4.

PROJECT 12

Responsible: Maria Teresa PARESCHI, CNR-GSDSGA Pisa

TITLE: Creation of volcanic thematic maps

GENERAL COMMENTS

The activities of the 2^nd Year achieved the planned completion of the DEM for the main Italian active volcanoes. It is expected that this topographic database will be made available as soon as possible to the whole GNV.

In addition, the development of GIS to serve as database and graphical interface for the whole GNV, has started.

The EC sees an urgent need to expand the task of Project 12 and set up an integrated database and GIS for each major volcano, and at least for Stromboli, Etna, Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei. The information layers should include all the significant results, maps, grids and original databases from the different projects and disciplines covered by GNV. All data should be geo-referenced and made uniform to allow their use and comparison in a unified GIS.

The functionality of the database and GIS should serve the following purposes:

• To improve the coordination between the GNV projects and avoid the dispersion of the GNV results, and to avoid each project being left to develop a database/GIS by itself.
• To provide the scientific community with a powerful tool to display, correlate and integrate data, investigate the volcanic processes at different spatial and time scale, improve the multidisciplinary understanding of volcanic structure and processes, and evaluate areas for future common work.
• To increase the reliability of the surveillance of Italian volcanoes and the rapid assessment of volcanic hazard and risk, by creating the technical framework for the integration of thematic maps and scientific results with monitoring activities and real-time data.
• To provide the interface for the development of tools and scenarios for use by the D.P.C.;
• To visualize exciting scientific discoveries for the general public and for education and outreach purposes.

To achieve this expansion to the original goals of Project 12, the EC recommends that GNV and INGV submit a coordinated project proposal to D.P.C. This project incorporate the activities of Project 12 and evaluate as starting point the results of the on-going EU GEOWARN project and the GIS under development at Osservatorio Vesuviano.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

We recommend to close Project 12 and to allocate the funds foreseen for the 3^rd Year of Project 12 to the GNV Direction to initiate the new, expanded initiative described above.

PROJECT 13

Coordinator: Mauro COLTELLI, INGV Catania 

TITLE: Development and application of remote sensing methods for the monitoring of active Italian volcanoes

GENERAL COMMENTS

The Activity Report provides a good summary of the on-going activities in the 5 main tasks and the 15 RU. The project appears to move successfully toward the achievement of the proposed goals. In addition, the EC notes the large participation in the recent volcanic emergencies on Stromboli and Etna.

In the 3^rd Year, a coordination with other projects working on tomographic imaging of the volcanic structure and of the transient dike intrusions (Projects 3, 6, 9) is envisaged.

The project needs to develop a well-defined implementation phase to ensure that the developed algorithms are implemented in the surveillance procedures at INGV and during volcanic emergencies.

RU Nunnari presented an activity report largely duplicating the work done by the same group in Project 3; the activities of RU for the 3^rd Year are incorporated in Project 13.

The project has a large budget for contracts, which in the moment appears not fully used.

The request of the coordinator for the completion of the Volvorad II is approved.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

We recommend a budget of 460 ML for the 3^rd Year (original request 450 ML).

The allocation of this budget is conditional to the presentation of a complete table listing all contract positions (names, qualifications, number of months) supported by GNV in 2000-2002 and those to be supported in 2003.

PROJECT 14

Coordinator: Aldo ZOLLO, Università di Napoli “Federico II”

TITLE: Integrated seismic methods applied to the investigation of the active volcano structure,

application to the Campi Flegrei caldera

GENERAL COMMENTS

The project is successful and is producing results according to the proposed executive plan and it has a proper publication rate on international peer reviewed journals. The project appears to be well balanced and coordinated. The Activity Report provides a good summary of the on-going activities in all the tasks and RU.

A further line of activity (the SERAPIS experiment) has been added to the project during the 2^nd Year, with additional funding from GNV and D.P.C.; the SERAPIS experiment has been completed and the archiving and analysis of data area underway. The request by the coordinator to add two additional RU involved in the SERAPIS analysis is approved.

The project will provide methods and models, which could be used to improve the monitoring of seismic activity in the Phlegraean Fields. The coordinator is asked to include in the third year plan an implementation phase to evaluate the use of tomographic models and 3D location in monitoring procedures.

To account for the new project tasks, the coordinator was granted for the 2^nd Year an additional 4 GNV contract positions, to be added to the 5 approved in the first Year. As the funding for the 2^nd Year has been allocated with large delay, it appears that these additional positions have not been used by the project. In addition, the RU2 did not use any of the funds allocated in the first 2 years for contract positions.

The coordinator presented a request for the 3^rd Year to cover the 9 contract units for an additional 18 months. The EC recommends a revision of the budget request taking into account the use of the funds in the first two years and asks the coordinator to apply a strict control on the budget allocations for the third year, with special regards to the budget for contract positions.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

We recommend a budget of 339 ML for the 3^rd Year. Taking into account the original budget request, the compensation for the 2^nd Year unused contracts and the on-going contracts, we recommend the following subdivision: RU1 79+15 ML, RU2 0 ML, RU3 8+50 ML, RU4 28+15 ML, RU5 48+20 ML, RU6 24 ML, RU7 24 ML, RU8 14 ML, RU9 14 ML.

The allocation of this budget is conditional to the presentation of a complete table listing all contract positions (names, qualifications, number of months) supported by GNV in 2000-2002 and those to be supported in 2003. In addition, we recommend GNV to make available to the project an additional 100 ML to cover for further contracts as indicated in the 2^nd and 3^rd Year budget requests, conditional to the presentation of a precise list of additional contracts to be given in 2003 (names, qualifications, number of months, starting date).

PROJECT 15

Responsibles: Francesco L. CHIOCCI, Università di Roma “La Sapienza” - Michael MARANI, CNR- Istituto di Geologia Marina di Bologna

TITLE: The Submarine Portions of Italian Volcanoes: Their Survey and Assessment of the potential Volcanic Hazards

The progress of the 7 tasks of the project is satisfactory. The EC acknowledges the further contribution given in the undergoing Stromboli crisis by RU1, 2 and 3.

The activity of RU7 and 8 has been quite poor and it should be increased in the 3^rd year of the project.

Publications on international journals are still few (only 4 papers). This may be partly due to the intensive data acquisition activity during the second year.

However a good percentage of the most relevant objectives has been achieved and the perspectives of reaching the final goals of the project are good.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

Considering the program of the 3^rd year and the planned sea-surveys, the EC proposes to fund the 3^rd year of the project with 260 ML.

PROJECT 16

Responsible: Giovanni ORSI, OV-INGV, Napoli

TITLE: Volcanic hazards assessment and zonations at the resurgent Campi Flegrei caldera and their effects on man and environment.

GENERAL COMMENTS

The second year report confirms that this large (14RUs) project continues to deliver excellent results. The co-ordination is good, and the EC considers that most of the original objectives will be obtained by the end of the project.

The second year report provides a comprehensive overview of the progress of the project and is very well written.

30 publications are listed as in print or in press in international journals, with a further 10 under submission. Additionally there have been 23 presentations at international meetings  congresses and 13  at national meetings. Not all the groups have been equally productive – but this is to be expected in a project of this nature.

The results of the project will have substantial importance for Civil Protection in presenting an integrated understanding of the Campi Flegrei volcanic system. Specific deliverables at this stage include the following:

1. Developing a 3-D probability tomography inversion code for MT and MV data
2. Database of the seismic vulnerability of building structures in Bacoli and Monte di Procida

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The co-ordinator has asked for some changes to the objectives of research activities in Year 3 and wishes to re-distribute the budget accordingly. He has produced a revised table of costs which is approved by the EC at a total of 511 ML.

The EC emphasises the importance of integration of the results of this project with those of other groups also working on Campi Flegrei; especially Project 14 Zollo, Project 17 Papale, Project 1 Chiodini.

PROJECT 17

Responsible: Paolo PAPALE, INGV-Roma1, Pisa

TITLE: Simulation of eruptive scenarios at Phlegrean Fields based on field, laboratory and numerical studies and implications for volcanic hazard

GENERAL COMMENTS

This a well coordinated project with a good level of cooperation between the six individual research units. In 2002 the annual project meeting was held in Pisa on 26 September. Unfortunately because of the delay in funding the second year by GNV it was not possible to hold a joint project meeting with the various groups who are also working on Campi Flegrei.

The second year report presents a  comprehensive review of research activity in 2002. All research units appear to be working at a high level and it is anticipated that > 90% of the original project will be completed by the end of 2003. RU3 (Romano) experienced some delays because of instrument problems at DEES, University of Munich. The two overseas research groups (Rutherford (USA) and Dingwell (Germany)) appear well integrated within the project, although it is disappointing to note that no Italian researchers appear to have been directly involved in these experimental studies. The lack of research publications by these two groups was noted by the EC.

Overall the scientific output of the project is good with 13 papers published or in press in international journals and 28 conference presentations. A database of  scientific publications on Campi Flegrei has been published on the GNV website.

A new project for measuring magma viscosity in high pressure experiments to allow determinations of hydrous viscosity at close to eruptive temperature was proposed as part of the second year report.

The EC agreed that these experiments should be funded in Year 3, including the use of the Spring-8 synchrotron radiation facility in Japan.

The project has provided a substantial improvement in the understanding of possible eruption scenarios and potential volcanic hazards at Campi Flegrei which will be of direct benefit to GNV.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The EC recommends that Year 3 of the project should be funded at a level 300 ML. It was noted that the travel and subsistence costs of RU2 (4300 Euro) seem rather high compared to those of the other RUs and an attempt should be made to reduce these.

PROGETTO 18

Responsible: Renato FUNICIELLO, Università di Roma3

TITLE: Gas Hazard in the Alban Hills Region (Rome)

GENERAL COMMENTS

The project started in the 2^nd year of the framework program. The research, aiming at the definition and origin of gas emission at Alban Hills, is progressing in a satisfactory way.

Preliminary evaluations of gas hazard and dating of recent catastrophic lahars events have been published in international journals.

This project had to be financially supported from Protezione Civile also. The Evaluation Committee regrets that the delay of this part of funding has inhibited the acquisition of commercial devices for continuous automatic monitoring of CO₂ soil flux to be installed in the inhabited parts of the area.

BUDGET THIRD YEAR

The EC proposes 140 ML for the 3^rd year.